Daily Fantasy Baseball
July 3, 2012 posted by Nick Raducanu

2012 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 7/3

2012 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 7/3
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Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals 1B/OF

Each and every day, I’ll be combing over box scores and scouring local beat writers’ reports to make sure you have all the information you need in order to make the right decisions for your fantasy baseball lineup. Make sure you check back at this very spot for Hot/Cold Streaks, Injury News, Closer Updates, Daily Stats, and more so that you can stay one step ahead of the rest of your league.

As always, make sure you’re getting your daily fantasy sports fix by playing the FP911Challenge. Not sure how to play? Don’t worry, because Dan Stack’s got you covered with a quick tutorial and some tips for this week.

Looking Back

Before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify the Studs and Duds from Monday, July 2nd.

5 Good Nights

  • Allen Craig: 2-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jered Weaver: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 K’s, W
  • Jeff Samardzija: 7.0 IP, 4 H, ER, 11 K’s, W
  • Garrett Jones: 4-5, 3 R, HR, 4 RBI
  • Mike Moustakas: 2-5, R, HR, 5 RBI

Honorable Mention: Justin Ruggiano, Andrew McCutchen, Howard Kendrick, Dustin Ackley, Miguel Cabrera, Neil Walker, Brandon Moss, Chris Davis, Alexi Amarista, Todd Frazier, Homey Bailey, Clayton Richard, Kyle Lohse, James McDonald, Jarrod Parker

5 Bad Nights

  • Daisuke Matsuzaka: 1.0 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB’s
  • Doug Fister: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, BB, 4 K’s
  • Ricky Romero: 6.0 IP, 11 H, 8 ER, 3 BB’s, 4 K’s
  • Nyjer Morgan: 0-5
  • Drew Stubbs: 0-5

Dishonorable Mention: Jamey Carroll, Jordan Lyles, Liam Hendriks, Zack Greinke, Josh Outman

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

  • Mike Trout missed yesterday’s game with a jammed finger he suffered while sliding in Sunday’s game. X-rays came back negative, so it looks like the youngster escaped serious injury here. You can exhale now, Trout owners…
  • Max Scherzer miss his start today with a hamstring injury, and Duane Below will take the get the spot-start in his place. Scherzer is scheduled to start Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers skip that start too in order to give him extra time to rest over the All-Star break.
  • Will Middlebrooks is nursing a tight hamstring, and the Red Sox are contemplating a trip to the disabled list for their young third baseman. I’ll update this as soon as I hear more, but make sure he’s out of your lineup for the time being.
  • Matt Kemp (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment today at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga and is targeting a July 13th return to the Dodgers’ lineup.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (shoulder) hit a home run in his third rehab game yesterday, and still appears on-track to return to the Red Sox shortly after the All-Star break. Now might be the time to buy-low on the first-round pick…
  • Carl Crawford (elbow, wrist) will join Double-A Portland today as he continues to work his way back to health. Like Ellsbury, Crawford appears on-track to return to the Red Sox when play resumes after the All-Star break.
  • Apropos of nothing…Dontrelle Willis retired yesterday at the age of 30. Willis was one of the more exciting pitchers I’ve watched in the past 10-15 years and it’s sort of sad that he never put it all together for more than a couple years.
  • Trout/Harper/Rizzo/Bauer Watch: With two of baseball’s best prospects being called-up earlier this season, I’m going to dedicate this space to keeping tabs on the youngsters. Here’s to hoping that you were able to grab some of them! (UPDATE: Anthony Rizzo and Trevor Bauer are the latest uber prospects to get the call, so I’ve added them to the list, as well.)
    Bryce Harper: The Nationals did not play yesterday. (.274, 38 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 8 steals on the season).
    Mike Trout: As I noted above, Trout did not play yesterday.  (.339, 51 Runs, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 22 steals on the season).
    Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo went 2-4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI yesterday. (.304, 3 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI on the season).
    Trevor Bauer: Bauer will start is tonight against the Padres. (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 K’s on the season)

Looking Ahead

Starting and sitting the right pitchers on a day-to-day basis is often the linchpin of winning any league – roto, head-to-head, daily, and otherwise. In order to give you some help picking your pitchers for today, I’ve gone through all the stats I could (pitchers’ career numbers vs. certain hitters and lineups, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, etc) and made nine recommendations. I’m not going to proclaim that I’ll get these 100% correct all season, but anyone that does should be sitting on an island they own in the Pacific – not writing fantasy baseball articles. The goal here is to play the odds the entire season and slowly build your “win” percentage closer to 100% than to 50%.

Here’s Tuesdays recommendations with, 3 Up (three pitchers you shouldn’t think of sitting), 3 Down (three pitchers with some warning flags for today), and Throwing Darts (three pitchers that I’ll be taking a flier on):

3 Up

Felix Hernandez vs. Baltimore Orioles

Johnny Cueto at Los Angeles Dodgers

Tim Lincecum at Washington Nationals

3 Down

Roy Oswalt at Chicago White Sox

Anibal Sanchez at Milwaukee Brewers

James Shields vs. New York Yankees

Throwing Darts

Trevor Bauer vs. San Diego Padres

Jonathon Niese vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Cashner at Arizona Diamondbacks

Today’s Swings and Misses
A hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher don’t always tell the whole story, but it can be informative if used correctly. I’m of the opinion that some information is better than none, and while there are other pieces to the puzzle of setting your daily lineup (splits, weather, etc.), I think a hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher can be very indicative of future success or failure. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. As such, I’ve gone through today’s matchups and picked the best (and worst) matchups I could find. Anything less than 12-15 career at-bats is a relatively small sample-size (so take those with a grain of salt), but sometimes that was available.

  • Robinson Cano is 27-for-65 (.545) with four home runs and 11 RBI in his career against today’s starter, James Shields.
  • Jim Thome  is 8-for-16 (.500) with three home runs in his career against today’s starter, Felix Hernandez.
  • Brandon Phillips is 13-for-29 (.448) with one home run in his career against today’s starter, Chris Capuano.
  • David Oritz is 5-for-43 (.116) in his career against today’s starter, Bartolo Colon.
  • Mark Teixeira is 6-for-48 (.125) in his career against today’s starter, James Shields.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is 2-for-20 (.100) in his career against today’s starter, Dan Haren.

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the great content on FantasyPros911.com, starting with some of our most recent updates:

  • Chuck Anderson takes a look at today’s pitching matchups in the latest edition of Pitch or Ditch.
  • Looking for the right pitchers to start this week? Greg Marta’s got you covered with a look at Pitching Matchups to Watch for this week.
  • Dan Stack identifies players that you’ll want to keep on your radar in Players to Watch for Week 14.
  • Collin Hager invented his own ranking system, and in case you haven’t seen it yet, you absolutely HAVE to check out his HVaC rankings.
  • Collin had a busy weekend and also put together a look at this week’s hitters in Hit or Ditch.
  • Matthew Dewoskin examines the latest happenings on the closer carousel in this week’s Blown Opportunities.
  • Matthew Dewoskin also dives into some swing percentage research in order to deliver you this week’s double-dose of Leaders and Laggards.
  • It’s always important to know which starters have two starts in a week, and Dave Shovein did the work for you in this week’s Double Starters.
  • Lenny Melnick and his award-winning podcast are back with a rundown of last night’s action and a whole lot more on today’s edition!
  • The calendar has turned to July, which means it’s time to start talking fantasy football! Before you start mock drafting, make sure you check out Paul Greco’s pre-season rankings, including Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End, and Strength of Schedule.
If you have any questions, comments, complaints, or have a suggestion on a feature you’d like to see covered in these daily reports, please email me at FantasyTrade411@gmail.com and I’ll be happy to respond.
Nick Raducanu finished 2011 ranked in the top 20 on ESPN’s Fantasy site, and is the mystery man behind the TraderX persona at www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411.

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