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March 8, 2012 posted by Collin Hager

2012 Fantasy Baseball – ADP Report, March 7th

2012 Fantasy Baseball – ADP Report, March 7th
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Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers OF

The reversal of Ryan Braun’s suspension has done a fair amount to shake up the top ten overall picks over the last two weeks. Braun was being selected in the third round by most accounts but has moved inside the first thanks to his ability to play all 162 games for Milwaukee. Take a look at what we saw two weeks ago:

Rank

Player

Pos

Team

2 Weeks

Ago

1

Matt Kemp

OF

LA

1.52

2

Miguel Cabrera

1B

DET

2.54

3

Albert Pujols

1B

ANA

2.86

4

Jose Bautista

OF

TOR

4.36

5

Troy Tulowitzki

SS

COL

4.68

6

Justin Verlander

SP

DET

8.42

7

Jacoby Ellsbury

OF

BOS

8.52

8

Justin Upton

OF

ARI

8.82

9

Joey Votto

1B

CIN

9.41

10

Adrian Gonzalez

1B

BOS

9.5

11

Robinson Cano

2B

NYY

9.99

12

Evan Longoria

3B

TB

11.87

28

Ryan Braun

OF

MIL

27.99

Largely, exactly as you would expect. Plenty of thunder at the top and decent depth and selections from first base toward the latter portion of the round. Then when there was first word of Braun’s reduction, we saw this change just a week ago:

Rank

Player

Pos

Team

1 Week

Ago

1

Matt Kemp

OF

LA

1.64

2

Miguel Cabrera

1B

DET

2.85

3

Albert Pujols

1B

ANA

2.96

4

Jose Bautista

OF

TOR

4.64

5

Troy Tulowitzki

SS

COL

4.99

6

Justin Verlander

SP

DET

8.39

7

Justin Upton

OF

ARI

8.83

8

Jacoby Ellsbury

OF

BOS

8.85

9

Joey Votto

1B

CIN

9.65

10

Adrian Gonzalez

1B

BOS

9.82

11

Robinson Cano

2B

NYY

10.48

12

Evan Longoria

3B

TB

12.35

19

Ryan Braun

OF

MIL

19.59

Overall, limited change. The numbers had not moved too much in any respect to note the arrival of Braun back on the scene in April. Now this week, the numbers shake out this way.

Rank

Player

Pos

Team

Current

ADP

1

Matt Kemp

OF

LA

2.1

2

Miguel Cabrera

1B

DET

3.19

3

Albert Pujols

1B

ANA

3.44

4

Jose Bautista

OF

TOR

5.13

5

Troy Tulowitzki

SS

COL

5.38

6

Ryan Braun

OF

MIL

6.12

7

Justin Verlander

SP

DET

8.79

8

Jacoby Ellsbury

OF

BOS

9.28

9

Justin Upton

OF

ARI

9.34

10

Joey Votto

1B

CIN

10.13

11

Adrian Gonzalez

1B

BOS

10.17

12

Robinson Cano

2B

NYY

10.98

13

Evan Longoria

3B

TB

13.03

 

The movement here indicates that Braun is more likely going number one or two overall. Why? The biggest swings are occurring in the upper half of the round. Kemp has dropped as have Cabrera and Pujols. The remainder is largely falling as a result of the shakeup. The note to take from this is simply that you will not be able to wait until pick six simply because the ADP says so. Peel back that onion and know that the trigger needs to be pulled earlier.

In news outside of the first round, Ryan Howard has seen his draft position fall ten spots in the last two weeks to 163 overall. Howard has suffered a minor setback in his return from an Achilles injury. The first baseman had an infection cleaned out. While the structure of the tendon seemed just fine according to reports, there is no timeline set for his return at this point. It does not seem serious but there are certainly some reasons for caution.

As expected, the news that came out last week on Brett Myers going to the bullpen to close for Houston has resulted in a major increase in his draft position. His jump of 80 spots to number 232 overall shows the value that is being placed on saves and the fact that Myers will be a primary source for them. The thought here is still that he is second tier simply because of the Houston offense and the opportunities that they will generate for him, but he is certainly on the rise.

One pitcher that has been a favorite late-round sleeper of mine is Clayton Richard. His home splits have been outstanding and he has done a solid job pitching against his own division. Richard did not pitch after early July last season and underwent shoulder surgery at the end of that month. He is back and facing live hitters. While he may not be ready Opening Day, he is picking up in ADP. The San Diego lefty is at 323 overall, moving up 75 spots in the last two weeks.

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